What Proportion Of Credible Conspiracy Theories Exist?

Conspiracy theories are explanations of events or situations based on data not officially recognized and generally induced by influential and powerful groups. A June Pew Research Center survey found that a quarter of U.S. adults see at least some truth in these theories, including 5 who say it is definitely true and 20 who say it is probably true. The prevalence of conspiracy mongering may not be new, but today the theories are becoming more visible.

The current U.S. president, Donald Trump, has been a prolific purveyor of a wide array of conspiracy theories during the 2016 election. Despite hundreds of studies examining belief in conspiracy theories, it is still unclear who demographically is most likely to believe such theories. To remedy this, it is essential to understand why some people believe they did and what do conspiracy theories.

About half of Americans believe in at least one disproven conspiracy theory, perhaps none more provocative than the conspiracy theory of Lee Harvey Oswald. Most Americans believe that Lee Harvey Oswald definitely or probably did not act alone in assassinating John F. Kennedy in 1963. Conspiracy theories have legitimized violence, impaired public health, and undermined democratic governance. Containing their harms begins with understanding the tethered nature of these beliefs.

In conclusion, conspiracy theories are an explanation for events or situations that assert the existence of a conspiracy by powerful and sinister groups, often political. Surveys that simply ask about belief in conspiracy theories likely overstate how much Americans believe in conspiracies outside of the survey context.